There were 300 runs. Workers appealed truthfully and nobody disputed approvals.
In one test, the share of stampers grew from half to nine in ten. False approvals that went through fell from 650 under the old rules to 257 with plants alone, and to 83 with the dial on. The price was speed. In all, tasks spent 47 times as much time waiting for an inspector as before, and fewer tasks were completed: 2,518 against 4,209. The record calls this "honest and slow rather than captured and fast".
With a fixed share of stampers, false approvals fell four- to five-fold at every share tested. Stampers were suspended within their first few planted tasks. But suspension freed them from inspecting. The careful inspectors were the only ones allowed to inspect, so they were on duty almost all the time, doing 500 to 800 reviews each for a fee of 2 a review. Meanwhile the suspended stampers took the paid tasks, worth 20 each. With 60% stampers, stampers ended richer in 19 of 20 runs, by 215 per actor. Only at 80% stampers, too many for the market to absorb, did they lose again.
When inspectors could switch to whichever kind was doing better, they moved toward careful, further and faster than under 1.1.0. The record calls this a direction, not an equilibrium.
A stamper that rejected 10% of its reviews at random gained a small edge, not a safe hiding place. The orchestrator ended with more money than it started with in every setting. But the cash it had free at any moment limited how many plants it could pay for.
Run 4 was 300 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, with truthful appeals and no disputes. In the record's words, nobody polices approvals "but the loop itself".
Under a drift of stampers from 50% to 90% over 1,500 ticks, false approvals that vested were 650 under 1.1.0, 257 with plants but the dial off, and 83 with the dial on. They stopped growing once the dial saturated. The price was capacity. On duty fell to about 3 against a target of 5 to 8. Submitted cases spent 47 times as many review-ticks waiting for an inspector as in the control. Vesting ended at 2,518 cases against 4,209. The orchestrator could not fund 351 of the 918 plants the rate called for.
At fixed splits, honesty held everywhere: false approvals fell four- to five-fold against 1.1.0, and stampers were suspended within their first handful of plants. But the money contest at 50 to 70% stampers was not what the revision's first hypothesis predicted. The careful actors were the only eligible inspectors, and the dial sized the reserve up, so they were on duty almost all the time: 500 to 800 reviews each against 80 to 100 for a stamper. The suspended stampers, free of duty, took the awards and the delivery income. At 60/40 they took 200 awards to 64 and 3,311 in delivery income to 1,063. A fee of 2 per review does not replace an award of 20 per delivery. Stampers ended richer by 215 per actor in 19 of 20 seeds, under the rule whose purpose was to make stamping unprofitable. Only at 80/20 did they lose again (−902).
With adaptive dispositions, where every 100 ticks each actor may switch to the richer kind, the stamper share ended at 0.29 under 1.2.0 against 0.43 under 1.1.0. The record calls this "a direction, not an equilibrium." A camouflaged stamper that rejects 10% of reviews at random turned a 50/50 wash (−2) into +112. The record calls camouflage "a small edge, not a safety". The orchestrator's net was positive in every cell, but its working capital, not its income, limited the plants.
agentic_sim/results/studies/1.2.0-clock/ (and 1.2.0-clock.zip beside it): drift/ (60 runs), adaptive/ (40), tipping/ (120), redteam/ (80) — 300 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, every final audit passed; engine 544ff19 (2708f64 adds only test records). Appeals truthful and no disputes throughout — the design assumption's regime: the actor polices rejections, nobody polices approvals but the loop itself. The §6 reproduction is test_v12. "FA" is false approvals that vested; 1.1.0 cells are the control (--rules 1.1.0).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.665–669
Drift (run 2 of the revision's §8): the honest regime holds, at a capacity price. Stampers rise from 50% to 90% in steps of 5% every 100 ticks over 1,500 ticks, 4,500 tasks posted.
| cell |
FA |
vested |
stamper − careful (se) |
stampers richer |
m at end |
alarms |
eligibility shortfall (actor-ticks) |
reviews waiting (review-ticks) |
plants unfunded |
| 1.2.0, dial on |
83 |
2,518 |
−2,213 (49) |
0 of 20 |
4.0 |
10.6 |
2,515 |
119,620 |
351 of 918 |
| 1.2.0, dial off (plants at π₀, m = 1) |
257 |
3,213 |
−827 (69) |
0 of 20 |
1.0 |
0 |
33 |
52,528 |
0 |
| 1.1.0 control |
650 |
4,209 |
+233 (186) |
12 of 20 |
— |
— |
— |
2,283 |
— |
Source: HANDOFF.md l.671–678
Under 1.1.0 false approvals grow with the stamper share (80 at tick 300, 650 at 1,500) and the stampers end richer in 12 of 20. With plants alone (dial off) they fall to 257; with the dial they fall to 83, and they stop growing once the dial saturates: 66 at tick 600, 83 at 1,500.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.680–682
The price is capacity: on duty falls from 6 at tick 300 to about 3 from tick 900, against an X_t of 5–8; the eligibility shortfall accumulates 2,515 actor-ticks; a submitted case waits for a reviewer 119,620 review-ticks in all (47× the control); vesting ends at 2,518 cases against 4,209; Ω cannot fund 351 of the 918 plants the rate called for at m = 4 (Ω net still +1,603, the raised ω). Hypothesis 2 holds as stated — "honest and slow rather than captured and fast" — and the slow is measured.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.685–689
| cell |
stamper share at end |
stampers richer |
FA |
m |
alarms |
| 1.2.0 |
0.29 |
6 of 20 |
59 |
3.2 |
4.2 |
| 1.1.0 |
0.43 |
9 of 20 |
249 |
— |
— |
Both populations move toward careful under truthful appeals; 1.2.0 moves them further and faster. One adaptation rule, one seed of starting shares: a direction, not an equilibrium.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.694–700
Adaptive dispositions (run 3). Actors start 50/50; every 100 ticks each actor takes the richer disposition by mean public wealth with probability 0.2.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.691–692
| split (stampers) |
1.2.0: stamper − careful (se), richer |
1.2.0 FA |
1.1.0: stamper − careful (se), richer |
1.1.0 FA |
1.2.0 reviews careful / stamper |
1.2.0 awards careful / stamper |
1.2.0 delivery income careful / stamper |
1.2.0 fees careful / stamper |
| 50% (red team, no camouflage) |
−2 (51), 11 of 20 |
53 |
— |
— |
502 / 78 |
99 / 200 |
— |
— |
| 60% |
+215 (34), 19 of 20 |
67 |
+22 (108), 9 of 20 |
306 |
636 / 82 |
64 / 207 |
1,063 / 3,311 |
2,106 / 277 |
| 70% |
−10 (25), 8 of 20 |
89 |
+43 (77), 9 of 20 |
379 |
787 / 91 |
37 / 195 |
654 / 3,142 |
2,612 / 309 |
| 80% |
−902 (25), 0 of 20 |
121 |
+223 (138), 13 of 20 |
442 |
799 / 100 |
33 / 143 |
626 / 2,373 |
2,915 / 354 |
Source: HANDOFF.md l.704–709
Honesty holds at every split: false approvals fall four- to five-fold against 1.1.0, the stampers' â is 0.76–0.90 and they are suspended within their first handful of plants (run 1's "seat" channel works). But the money contest at 50–70% is not what Hypothesis 1 predicted. The careful actors are the only eligible reviewers, the dial sizes the reserve up (X_t 7–8), and they are therefore on duty almost all the time — 500 to 800 reviews each against 80–100 for a stamper — while the suspended stampers, free of duty, take the awards (200 to 64 at 60/40) and the delivery income (3,311 to 1,063). The fee f = 2 per review does not replace the award B = 20 per delivery: at 60/40 the stampers end richer in 19 of 20 seeds by 215 per actor, under the rule whose purpose was to make stamping unprofitable. The ρ channel does not help, because selection is argmax ρ among the free actors, and the careful are not free. What decides the contest under 1.2.0 is therefore not the plant penalty (about 0.6 per review, as computed) but who carries the reviewing load, and the revision loads it onto the honest minority and pays them the ordinary fee while Ω collects the raised security tax (Ω net +5,898 at 60/40 against +3,106 under 1.1.0). Only at 80/20, where the stampers are too many for the market to absorb and the reserve is short most of the time, do they lose again (−902).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.711–723
Red team (run 5). A stamper that rejects 10% of its reviews at random: at 50/50 it buys time — plant failures per stamper 5.9 against 7.2, suspensions 45 against 54, alarms 2.1 against 4.3 — and turns the wash (−2) into +112 (se 74, 13 of 20), with false approvals still low (42) and false rejections up (26 against 18; its random rejections are appealed and 133 of 138 appeals won). At 90/10 it changes nothing that matters (−1,733 against −1,961; FA 154 against 165). Camouflage is a small edge, not a safety; the detection half of the red team has nothing to detect by construction (the view test).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.725–730
Cost (run 6). Ω's plant spend is 2,000–3,500 per 1,000 ticks at m ≈ 4 (the careful inspections' fees and expenses; a stamper's failed plant costs Ω nothing), against ω income that rises with m to about four times 1.1.0's; Ω net is positive in every cell (+900 to +5,900 per run) and lowest where the reserve is shortest (80/20, drift), because fewer awards mean less ω. The working capital binds before the income does: at m = 4 and π = 0.4 the rate calls for more plants than Ω's unlocked balance can carry at once — 17 to 663 unfunded per run, worst where vesting is slow and plant pools stay open longest.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.732–737