Version 1.2.02026-10-17Design revision 2

The loop's own clock

Runs: Run 4

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No replayThere is no recorded replay of this version; 2.7.0 is the one version with one. The results below are the study's own tables.

The orchestrator plants cases with a known answer, so it can see careless inspectors without panels.

01

What went wrong

Every signal came from inspector panels, so once stampers held the panels, the system could not see.

Bad outcome: Appeals alone, half stampers, eight on duty, then stampers richer by 200 per actor
Bad outcome: Nine in ten inspectors stamp, then panels are mostly stampers, and disputes won only 23 of 135
No: Humans do not step in, so there is no outside source of truth

Under 1.1.0, the worker policed wrong rejections by appealing, and the person who asked for the work policed wrong approvals by disputing.

With appeals alone, a careful inspector's few mistakes were punished almost every time. A stamper's mistakes were caught about 3% of the time. The stampers ended richer. When nine in ten inspectors were stampers, every panel that judged a challenge was mostly stampers. Disputes failed, and no rate of disputes fixed it.

Every signal the system had came from these panels. So once stampers held the panels, the system could not see its own state. The designers then made an assumption the rules had left unsaid: humans do not step in. That took away the one outside source of truth the rules had leaned on.

Under 1.1.0 the actor polices rejections, by appealing, and the requester polices approvals, by disputing. Runs 2 and 3, 1,295 runs in all, showed what follows. With appeals alone, a careful inspector's 5% false rejections were punished almost every time and a stamper's negligence was caught about 3% of the time, so stampers ended richer (+200 per actor at 50/50 with eight on duty). A requester disputing one bad result in four reversed that, with break-even near a dispute rate of 0.07. At 10/90 every panel was stamper-majority: disputes failed (23 of 135 won), and selection handed the stampers the awards, 159 to 66.

The record's diagnosis is that every signal the loop produced was panel-produced, so under capture the loop was blind to its own state. The same day, the design added an assumption the baseline had left implicit: humans do not intervene. That removes the one external oracle the loop leaned on.

Finding [S2]. Runs 2 and 3 (October 17, 2026; 1,295 runs under 1.1.0). The actor polices rejections (appeals, a≈0.98a\approx0.98); the requester polices approvals (disputes). With appeals alone a careful reviewer's 5% false rejections are punished almost every time while a stamper's negligence is caught about 3% of the time, and stampers end richer (+200 per actor at 50/50, X=8X=8); with the requester disputing one bad result in four, careful ends richer by 489; break-even is a dispute rate of about 0.07, and careful review pays only above an accuracy of about 92% at that rate. At 10/90 every panel is stamper-majority: disputes fail (23 of 135 won), only the careful minority's errors are adjudicated, their ρ\rho ends below the stampers', selection hands the stampers the awards (159 to 66), and no dispute rate recovers it. At GV=20G^V=20 about 7% of duty slot-ticks are held by actors who cannot fund the bond and the reserve starves.

Source: spec/agentic_economics_loop_spec_v2_9_0.md l.1158

Mechanism. Every signal the loop produced was panel-produced, so under capture the loop was blind to its own state; the design assumption that humans do not intervene removes the one external oracle the baseline leaned on. The orchestrator therefore owns some truth itself: the truth of the work it writes. Planted work (§7.6) gives a measurement no panel can paint; the plant record (§11.2) turns it into eligibility a captured majority cannot protect; the dial (§12.2) turns it into effort that rises with the threat and eases without it, and into the reserve's size and the security tax.

Source: spec/agentic_economics_loop_spec_v2_9_0.md l.1160

Run 3's reading was that three measured inputs decided the careful–careless contest under 1.1.0 — whether the party who knows the truth challenges, how often the careful reviewer errs, and who sits on the panel — and that the third was the rule's: a stamper-majority reserve produces every signal the loop has, reliability included, so no remedy that leans on ρ can cure it. The design discussion the same day added the assumption the baseline had left implicit — humans do not intervene — which removes the one external oracle the loop leaned on.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.603–608

02

What changed

The orchestrator plants cases with a known answer; an inspector with a bad record can be suspended.

orchestrator plants cases with a known answer inspector judged by the known answer record
dial bad approvals of planted cases rise more plants, audits, inspectors on duty and fee
No: Nobody may challenge a planted case

Version 1.2.0 gives the orchestrator truth of its own. The orchestrator plants test tasks whose right answer it already knows. Each inspector gets a record of how it did on planted tasks, judged by the known answer and not by a panel. An inspector with a bad record can be suspended from inspecting. Nobody may challenge a planted task.

A dial reads, once a period, how often inspectors approve bad planted tasks. When that rate rises, the dial raises the number of plants, the odds of an audit, the number of inspectors on duty and the service fee. When the rate falls, they ease. If there are not enough inspectors with good records, the system runs short and says so. It does not seat careless inspectors to fill the gap.

The written rule for a suspended inspector, read literally, made every suspension permanent. The program used a smaller reading: after the suspension, the inspector comes back on probation and is checked again on its next planted task. That reading was later confirmed as the rule, in version 1.2.1.

Design revision 2 gives the orchestrator its own truth. It writes planted work whose fulfillment it knows by construction. Each actor carries a plant record, adjudicated by that truth and not by a panel, with two eligibility tiers. An effort dial reads the reserve's bad-plant approval rate once a period. It moves the plant rate, the audit odds, the reserve's size and the service fee with it. The record calls it "the block-difficulty adjustment with negligence in place of block time". A reserve short of eligible actors runs short and says so. No settlement, verdict or challenge rule of 1.1.0 changed; no challenge is admitted on a plant, and the actor's identity leaves the inspector's view.

Three release candidates were reviewed. One catch: rc.2 cleared the record when a suspended actor returned, which would have readmitted every stamper with a clean slate. In the accepted text the record persists. At implementation this made the literal suspension rule permanent, because a suspended actor judges no plants and so its record can never recover. The engine read it as readmission on probation, to duty but not to panels, until the next plant re-checks the record. Patch 1.2.1 confirmed that reading as the rule.

The revision gives the orchestrator truth of its own: planted work whose fulfillment it knows by construction (§7.6), a plant record per actor adjudicated by that truth and not by the panel, in two eligibility tiers (§11.2), and an effort dial that reads the reserve's bad-plant approval rate once a period and moves the plant rate, the audit odds, the reserve's size and the service fee with it — "the block-difficulty adjustment with negligence in place of block time" (§12.2). A reserve that runs short of eligible actors runs short and says so; the loop does not seat the negligent to make a number.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.608–614

It adds a mechanism; it does not alter any settlement, verdict or challenge rule of 1.1.0. It changes what participants may do (the orchestrator creates plants; an actor can be suspended from duty; no challenge is admitted on a plant), what they may see (§14), and makes two fixed quantities endogenous (XX, ω\omega).

Source: spec/agentic_economics_loop_spec_v2_9_0.md l.1162

Reviews. Three release candidates, each read on its own (spec/design_revisions/dr2_1.2.0-rc.*-review.md). rc.1: the plant actor was named in a view that carried the actor (§14) — the actor leaves the view;

Source: HANDOFF.md l.616–618

rc.2: clearing the record on return would have readmitted every stamper with a clean slate for ~50 reviews and kept panels captured at ~70% strength — the record persists;

Source: HANDOFF.md l.622–624

Found at implementation — flagged for confirmation. With the record persisting, "at the end of the suspension it is readmitted only if its record passes, and otherwise remains suspended for a further T_susp" makes every suspension permanent: the record is a trailing window of plant outcomes and a suspended actor judges no plants, so a record that failed cannot pass later. That leaves T_susp inert and contradicts the revision's §2.4 and its §8 run 2. The engine implements the smallest reading that gives T_susp its meaning: readmission on probation — to duty, not to panels — until the actor's next plant re-checks the record, with a still-failing record suspended again at once (§11.2 of the consolidated text, Appendix G, World._rotate).

Source: HANDOFF.md l.628–634

Confirmed as the rule in force by patch 1.2.1 (October 17, 2026; the sentence of design revision 3 rc.1's Appendix A), applied to spec/agentic_economics_loop_spec_v1_2_1.md; 1.2.0 to history.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.638–639

03

What the runs found

False approvals fell, but tasks waited much longer, and suspended stampers earned more by delivering work.

83false approvals with the dial on, against 650 under the old rules
Bad outcome: Suspended stampers take the paid tasks, worth 20 each, then at 60% stampers, richer by 215 per actor
False approvals and vested cases under a stamper drift from 50% to 90%
cases
false approvalsvested
1.2.0, dial on832,5181.2.0, dial off (plants at π₀, m = 1)2573,2131.1.0 control6504,209

False approvals that vested; 1,500 ticks, 4,500 tasks posted, 20 seeds. Source: HANDOFF.md l.671–678

Stamper minus careful wealth at fixed splits, 1.2.0 against 1.1.0
credits
1.2.01.1.0
50% stampers (red team, no camouflage)-2 ± 51—60% stampers215 ± 3422 ± 10870% stampers-10 ± 2543 ± 7780% stampers-902 ± 25223 ± 138

Per actor; positive means stampers richer. Truthful appeals, 1,000 ticks, 20 seeds. ± is the standard error over the seeds. Source: HANDOFF.md l.704–709

Awards won under 1.2.0, careful against stamper
awards
carefulstamper
50% stampers9920060% stampers6420770% stampers3719580% stampers33143

Per actor. Suspended stampers, free of duty, take the awards. Source: HANDOFF.md l.704–709

There were 300 runs. Workers appealed truthfully and nobody disputed approvals.

In one test, the share of stampers grew from half to nine in ten. False approvals that went through fell from 650 under the old rules to 257 with plants alone, and to 83 with the dial on. The price was speed. In all, tasks spent 47 times as much time waiting for an inspector as before, and fewer tasks were completed: 2,518 against 4,209. The record calls this "honest and slow rather than captured and fast".

With a fixed share of stampers, false approvals fell four- to five-fold at every share tested. Stampers were suspended within their first few planted tasks. But suspension freed them from inspecting. The careful inspectors were the only ones allowed to inspect, so they were on duty almost all the time, doing 500 to 800 reviews each for a fee of 2 a review. Meanwhile the suspended stampers took the paid tasks, worth 20 each. With 60% stampers, stampers ended richer in 19 of 20 runs, by 215 per actor. Only at 80% stampers, too many for the market to absorb, did they lose again.

When inspectors could switch to whichever kind was doing better, they moved toward careful, further and faster than under 1.1.0. The record calls this a direction, not an equilibrium.

A stamper that rejected 10% of its reviews at random gained a small edge, not a safe hiding place. The orchestrator ended with more money than it started with in every setting. But the cash it had free at any moment limited how many plants it could pay for.

Run 4 was 300 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, with truthful appeals and no disputes. In the record's words, nobody polices approvals "but the loop itself".

Under a drift of stampers from 50% to 90% over 1,500 ticks, false approvals that vested were 650 under 1.1.0, 257 with plants but the dial off, and 83 with the dial on. They stopped growing once the dial saturated. The price was capacity. On duty fell to about 3 against a target of 5 to 8. Submitted cases spent 47 times as many review-ticks waiting for an inspector as in the control. Vesting ended at 2,518 cases against 4,209. The orchestrator could not fund 351 of the 918 plants the rate called for.

At fixed splits, honesty held everywhere: false approvals fell four- to five-fold against 1.1.0, and stampers were suspended within their first handful of plants. But the money contest at 50 to 70% stampers was not what the revision's first hypothesis predicted. The careful actors were the only eligible inspectors, and the dial sized the reserve up, so they were on duty almost all the time: 500 to 800 reviews each against 80 to 100 for a stamper. The suspended stampers, free of duty, took the awards and the delivery income. At 60/40 they took 200 awards to 64 and 3,311 in delivery income to 1,063. A fee of 2 per review does not replace an award of 20 per delivery. Stampers ended richer by 215 per actor in 19 of 20 seeds, under the rule whose purpose was to make stamping unprofitable. Only at 80/20 did they lose again (−902).

With adaptive dispositions, where every 100 ticks each actor may switch to the richer kind, the stamper share ended at 0.29 under 1.2.0 against 0.43 under 1.1.0. The record calls this "a direction, not an equilibrium." A camouflaged stamper that rejects 10% of reviews at random turned a 50/50 wash (−2) into +112. The record calls camouflage "a small edge, not a safety". The orchestrator's net was positive in every cell, but its working capital, not its income, limited the plants.

agentic_sim/results/studies/1.2.0-clock/ (and 1.2.0-clock.zip beside it): drift/ (60 runs), adaptive/ (40), tipping/ (120), redteam/ (80) — 300 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, every final audit passed; engine 544ff19 (2708f64 adds only test records). Appeals truthful and no disputes throughout — the design assumption's regime: the actor polices rejections, nobody polices approvals but the loop itself. The §6 reproduction is test_v12. "FA" is false approvals that vested; 1.1.0 cells are the control (--rules 1.1.0).

Source: HANDOFF.md l.665–669

Drift (run 2 of the revision's §8): the honest regime holds, at a capacity price. Stampers rise from 50% to 90% in steps of 5% every 100 ticks over 1,500 ticks, 4,500 tasks posted.

cell FA vested stamper − careful (se) stampers richer m at end alarms eligibility shortfall (actor-ticks) reviews waiting (review-ticks) plants unfunded
1.2.0, dial on 83 2,518 −2,213 (49) 0 of 20 4.0 10.6 2,515 119,620 351 of 918
1.2.0, dial off (plants at π₀, m = 1) 257 3,213 −827 (69) 0 of 20 1.0 0 33 52,528 0
1.1.0 control 650 4,209 +233 (186) 12 of 20 — — — 2,283 —

Source: HANDOFF.md l.671–678

Under 1.1.0 false approvals grow with the stamper share (80 at tick 300, 650 at 1,500) and the stampers end richer in 12 of 20. With plants alone (dial off) they fall to 257; with the dial they fall to 83, and they stop growing once the dial saturates: 66 at tick 600, 83 at 1,500.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.680–682

The price is capacity: on duty falls from 6 at tick 300 to about 3 from tick 900, against an X_t of 5–8; the eligibility shortfall accumulates 2,515 actor-ticks; a submitted case waits for a reviewer 119,620 review-ticks in all (47× the control); vesting ends at 2,518 cases against 4,209; Ω cannot fund 351 of the 918 plants the rate called for at m = 4 (Ω net still +1,603, the raised ω). Hypothesis 2 holds as stated — "honest and slow rather than captured and fast" — and the slow is measured.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.685–689

cell stamper share at end stampers richer FA m alarms
1.2.0 0.29 6 of 20 59 3.2 4.2
1.1.0 0.43 9 of 20 249 — —

Both populations move toward careful under truthful appeals; 1.2.0 moves them further and faster. One adaptation rule, one seed of starting shares: a direction, not an equilibrium.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.694–700

Adaptive dispositions (run 3). Actors start 50/50; every 100 ticks each actor takes the richer disposition by mean public wealth with probability 0.2.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.691–692

split (stampers) 1.2.0: stamper − careful (se), richer 1.2.0 FA 1.1.0: stamper − careful (se), richer 1.1.0 FA 1.2.0 reviews careful / stamper 1.2.0 awards careful / stamper 1.2.0 delivery income careful / stamper 1.2.0 fees careful / stamper
50% (red team, no camouflage) −2 (51), 11 of 20 53 — — 502 / 78 99 / 200 — —
60% +215 (34), 19 of 20 67 +22 (108), 9 of 20 306 636 / 82 64 / 207 1,063 / 3,311 2,106 / 277
70% −10 (25), 8 of 20 89 +43 (77), 9 of 20 379 787 / 91 37 / 195 654 / 3,142 2,612 / 309
80% −902 (25), 0 of 20 121 +223 (138), 13 of 20 442 799 / 100 33 / 143 626 / 2,373 2,915 / 354

Source: HANDOFF.md l.704–709

Honesty holds at every split: false approvals fall four- to five-fold against 1.1.0, the stampers' â is 0.76–0.90 and they are suspended within their first handful of plants (run 1's "seat" channel works). But the money contest at 50–70% is not what Hypothesis 1 predicted. The careful actors are the only eligible reviewers, the dial sizes the reserve up (X_t 7–8), and they are therefore on duty almost all the time — 500 to 800 reviews each against 80–100 for a stamper — while the suspended stampers, free of duty, take the awards (200 to 64 at 60/40) and the delivery income (3,311 to 1,063). The fee f = 2 per review does not replace the award B = 20 per delivery: at 60/40 the stampers end richer in 19 of 20 seeds by 215 per actor, under the rule whose purpose was to make stamping unprofitable. The ρ channel does not help, because selection is argmax ρ among the free actors, and the careful are not free. What decides the contest under 1.2.0 is therefore not the plant penalty (about 0.6 per review, as computed) but who carries the reviewing load, and the revision loads it onto the honest minority and pays them the ordinary fee while Ω collects the raised security tax (Ω net +5,898 at 60/40 against +3,106 under 1.1.0). Only at 80/20, where the stampers are too many for the market to absorb and the reserve is short most of the time, do they lose again (−902).

Source: HANDOFF.md l.711–723

Red team (run 5). A stamper that rejects 10% of its reviews at random: at 50/50 it buys time — plant failures per stamper 5.9 against 7.2, suspensions 45 against 54, alarms 2.1 against 4.3 — and turns the wash (−2) into +112 (se 74, 13 of 20), with false approvals still low (42) and false rejections up (26 against 18; its random rejections are appealed and 133 of 138 appeals won). At 90/10 it changes nothing that matters (−1,733 against −1,961; FA 154 against 165). Camouflage is a small edge, not a safety; the detection half of the red team has nothing to detect by construction (the view test).

Source: HANDOFF.md l.725–730

Cost (run 6). Ω's plant spend is 2,000–3,500 per 1,000 ticks at m ≈ 4 (the careful inspections' fees and expenses; a stamper's failed plant costs Ω nothing), against ω income that rises with m to about four times 1.1.0's; Ω net is positive in every cell (+900 to +5,900 per run) and lowest where the reserve is shortest (80/20, drift), because fewer awards mean less ω. The working capital binds before the income does: at m = 4 and π = 0.4 the rate calls for more plants than Ω's unlocked balance can carry at once — 17 to 663 unfunded per run, worst where vesting is slow and plant pools stay open longest.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.732–737

04

Conclusion

Planted cases kept the system honest at a cost in speed; the inspecting load decided the money.

Yes: Honest and slow rather than captured and fast
Bad outcome: The honest few inspect for 2 a review, then suspended stampers deliver for 20

The planted tasks kept the system honest, and the cost was speed. But the money contest now turned on who carries the inspecting. Version 1.2.0 put that load on the honest few and paid them the ordinary fee, while suspended stampers earned more by delivering work. The orchestrator kept the raised service fee. The record left three questions for the next decision: the probation reading, who carries the inspecting load, and the orchestrator's working money.

The record puts three things to the next decision. First, the probation reading needed confirming; patch 1.2.1 did that. Second, "the reviewing load is the contest": the revision conscripted the honest minority into the sized-up reserve and paid them 2 a review while stampers delivered at 20, and the orchestrator banked the raised tax. Third, the orchestrator's working capital caps the dial at its maximum. The record lists candidate fixes for the second as design questions: scale the fee with the dial, size the reserve to the eligible pool, or extend the stampers' exclusion from duty to awards.

  1. The probation reading (above) needs a decision. It is what makes F̂ stay high and the alarm fire every period in a captured market, and what gives the returning stamper its one plant before it is out again. The literal reading (permanent suspension) would make the clock quieter and the shortage larger. Neither is obviously right; the engine holds the first, and the alternative is one branch.
  2. The reviewing load is the contest. Under 1.2.0 the honest minority is conscripted into the sized-up reserve and paid f = 2 a review while the stampers deliver at B = 20. Candidates, all design questions: the fee scaled with the dial as the tax is (f_t = f·m_t, funded from ω_t, which Ω now keeps); a reserve sized to the eligible pool rather than to demand; or the stampers' exclusion from duty extended to awards (a ρ or â floor for selection — which run 3 warned against for ρ, but â cannot be captured).
  3. Ω's working capital, not its income, caps the clock at m_max; the float (300) carries one period at m = 1, and the rate at m = 4 is four times that with slower closures.

Source: HANDOFF.md l.742–752

Ω\Omega banked the raised tax (+5,898 at 60/40) levied for the effort the honest were supplying; and a plant tied up 45 credits of which 30 was Ω\Omega paying itself.

Source: spec/agentic_economics_loop_spec_v2_9_0.md l.1180