There were 360 runs. At every share of stampers tested, from half to 80%, careful inspectors ended richer by about 2,100 to 2,500 per actor, in 20 of 20 runs. A stamper earned from paid tasks only until its first few planted tasks, and then nothing. Plain stampers were never let back in, because they do not reform. False approvals stayed within a few of 1.2.0's.
The cost was speed. Completed tasks fell 20 to 42% below 1.2.0, because in 800 to 900 of every 1,000 ticks a paid task found no free member to take it.
When inspectors could switch to whichever kind did better, the population became honest in about 800 ticks, against about 1,500 under 1.2.0, and completed work recovered. The fund for inspectors did not speed this up. It changed who got the money, not how fast inspectors switched.
A stamper that inspected carefully on probation and stamped again once let back in still ended poorer than the careful inspectors in every run. In the test where stampers grew to nine in ten, setting the dial's limit lower meant two thirds of the false approvals came from inspectors on probation. Their approvals were supposed to be audited, but no free member was there to do it.
Run 5 was 360 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, with truthful appeals and no disputes, compared with run 4 on the same seeds.
At the tipping cells the stampers ended poorer at every split from 50% to 80%, by 2,132 to 2,486 per actor, in 0 of 20 seeds richer. The channel is the award. At 60/40 stampers' delivery income fell from 3,311 under 1.2.0 to 1,221, and their awards from 207 to 74. The fund added 340 to 380 per careful actor. False approvals stayed within a few of 1.2.0's, and probationers accounted for 7 to 16 of them per run. Plain stampers were never readmitted. The cost was throughput: vesting fell 20 to 42% below 1.2.0 and 36 to 58% below 1.1.0, because awards went unfilled for want of free members in 800 to 900 of 1,000 ticks.
With adaptive dispositions over 3,000 ticks, the population reached 10% stampers or fewer in 20 of 20 seeds, at a mean of 865 ticks with the fund and 770 without, against 1,468 under 1.2.0. Vesting recovered above 1.2.0's. The fund did not speed convergence; its effect is distributional, paying reviewers what the orchestrator would otherwise have banked.
Under a drift to 90% stampers both dial limits kept the loop honest. False approvals were 91 to 158, against 650 in the 1.1.0 control. At the lower limit (m_max 2), two thirds of false approvals were probationers'. Their pinned audits need a panel-eligible member free to take them, and fewer were seated. Camouflage (10% random rejections) gave an edge of about 130 per actor and no safety. The reformer, a stamper that reviews carefully on probation and stamps again once readmitted, was readmitted about 20 times a run and still ended 1,700 to 1,970 per actor poorer than the careful.
agentic_sim/results/studies/1.3.0-membership/ (and 1.3.0-membership.zip beside it): tipping/ (80 runs), adaptive/ (60), drift/ (80), redteam/ (140: camouflage 80, reformer 60) — 360 runs, 20 seeds per cell, 20 actors, every final audit passed, engine 91a49e5. Appeals truthful and no disputes throughout. The §6 reproduction is test_v13. 1.2.0 figures below are run 4's (same seeds, same driver, --rules 1.2.0).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.814–817
The tipping point (run 2 of the revision's §8) — the sign flips at every split.
| stampers |
1.3.0: stamper − careful (se), richer |
1.2.0 |
1.3.0 false approvals (of them by probationers) |
1.2.0 FA |
vested 1.3.0 / 1.2.0 / 1.1.0 |
awards unfilled for want of members (ticks of 1,000) |
fund paid to reviewers |
| 50% |
−2,132 (100), 0 of 20 |
−2 (51) |
53 (7) |
53 |
1,924 / 2,399 / — |
816 |
4,099 |
| 60% |
−2,397 (63), 0 of 20 |
+215 (34), 19 of 20 |
69 (15) |
67 |
1,727 / 2,412 / 2,675 |
869 |
4,027 |
| 70% |
−2,486 (37), 0 of 20 |
−10 (25) |
90 (14) |
89 |
1,439 / 2,396 / 2,739 |
878 |
3,040 |
| 80% |
−2,428 (36), 0 of 20 |
−902 (25) |
113 (16) |
121 |
1,176 / 2,024 / 2,813 |
899 |
2,003 |
Source: HANDOFF.md l.819–826
Hypothesis 1 holds, decisively: a stamper earns award income only until its first handful of plants and then nothing, so the honest end richer by 2,100–2,500 per actor at every split, in 20 of 20 seeds. The channel is the award — stampers' delivery income falls from 3,311 (1.2.0, 60/40) to 1,221, their awards from 207 to 74 — and the fund adds 340–380 per careful actor. Honesty is unchanged (false approvals within a few of 1.2.0's); probationers account for 7–16 of them per run (Hypothesis 5: their approvals are all audited, and what reaches a customer is what an audit missed or no member was free to take). Plain stampers were never readmitted: they do not reform. The cost is the throughput Hypothesis 3 named and did not treat: vesting falls 20–42% below 1.2.0 and 36–58% below 1.1.0, because awards go unfilled in 800–900 of 1,000 ticks for want of free members — at 60/40 eight members with half of them on duty cannot deliver three tasks a tick (Q11).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.828–836
Adaptive dispositions (run 3): an honest equilibrium, faster. Actors start 50/50 and every 100 ticks take the richer disposition with probability 0.2; 3,000 ticks.
| cell |
stamper share at 500 / 1,000 / 2,000 / 3,000 ticks |
reached ≤ 10% stampers |
mean tick |
vested |
FA |
| 1.3.0, fund on |
0.21 / 0.15 / 0.04 / 0.01 |
20 of 20 |
865 |
7,148 |
91 |
| 1.3.0, fund off |
0.20 / 0.12 / 0.01 / 0.00 |
20 of 20 |
770 |
7,216 |
90 |
| 1.2.0 |
0.36 / 0.29 / 0.15 / 0.07 |
19 of 20 |
1,468 |
6,796 |
92 |
Hypothesis 2 holds: an actor whose income is zero switches faster than one whose income is merely lower; the population reaches an honest state in about 800 ticks against about 1,500 under 1.2.0, and vesting recovers with it (7,100–7,200 over 3,000 ticks, above 1.2.0's 6,796). Hypothesis 4 does not: the fund does not speed the convergence (770 ticks without it, 865 with), because the gate decides the switch and the fund's uplift is small beside the award. The fund's effect is distributional — 8,048 paid to reviewers over 3,000 ticks instead of banked by Ω (Ω net 2,889 with the fund, 9,588 without).
Source: HANDOFF.md l.838–852
Drift (run 4): honest at both m_max, slower still. Stampers 50% → 90% over 1,500 ticks.
| cell |
FA (of them by probationers) |
vested (1.2.0: 2,518; 1.1.0: 4,209) |
stamper − careful |
plants unfunded |
fund paid |
| m_max 4, Ω₀ 300 |
97 (24) |
1,506 |
−3,038 (120) |
49 |
3,087 |
| m_max 4, Ω₀ 100 |
91 (23) |
1,529 |
−3,181 (156) |
119 |
3,215 |
| m_max 2, Ω₀ 300 |
158 (67) |
1,820 |
−2,945 (203) |
0 |
1,627 |
| m_max 2, Ω₀ 100 |
152 (65) |
1,856 |
−3,151 (213) |
34 |
1,676 |
Both settings keep the loop honest (1.1.0 control: 650) and both end with two members on duty, two probationers, and member seats sized below one. m_max 2 costs about 60 more false approvals and gains about 300 vested cases; two thirds of its false approvals are probationers' (65 against 23 at m_max 4), because the pinned audits need a panel-eligible member free to take them and at m_max 2 fewer are seated — the probation safety of Hypothesis 5 binds on member availability before it binds on the cap.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.854–867
Red team (run 6). Camouflage (10% random rejections) under the gate: at 50/50 −1,997 (91) against −2,132, false approvals 37 against 53, false rejections 25 against 16 — an edge of about 130 per actor, no safety; at 90/10 −1,096 (173) against −1,321. The reformer — a stamper that reviews carefully on probation and stamps again once readmitted — is readmitted about 20 times a run (mean cycle 150–170 ticks), reaches one or two probationer false approvals per run, and ends 1,700–1,970 per actor poorer than the careful at 50/50, 60/40 and 90/10 (0 of 20 richer): the cycle's yield is the fee and uplift of about 40 probation reviews a run against the awards lost in between.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.871–877