Run 12 found the credit was worth less: with members bidding, the price level rose from 20 to between about 32 and 37, and to the cap of 40 under any pressure.
The price was set by the free members' margins, not by cost.
With 60 percent stampers, only two of eight members delivered, and they won work every step they were free.
A shock of 2,000 credits raised the price level 15 percent, and the stampers' real wealth fell 13 percent; it did not come back.
Delivering at cost lost money: a fifth of the orchestrator's deliveries fail, nothing makes up for that, and the shortfall grew without end.
A test where the orchestrator charged the old margin ran the same path with no shortfall at all.
When a crowd of requests arrived, the 40 server places filled up and requests were refused.
Honesty did not depend on the price: stampers ended with a tenth of the honest inspectors' real wealth.
Run 13 asked what keeps the price high.
With more honest workers, the price fell toward cost: 22.5 with 20 honest workers, 11.6 with 30 and 10.9 with 40, against a cost of 8.
The bidding habit has no resting point in the middle: the price rises until buyers buy at one fixed rate per free member.
The orchestrator's own pricing never lowered the price.
Honesty did not move.
Run 12 (580 runs, 20 seeds a cell) found the credit worth less: the price level ended at 31.6–37.4 across 50–80% stampers with bidding members, against 21–24 in the control where every bid was the customer's ceiling, and at the cap of 40 under any pressure. The price was set by the free members' margins, not by cost: at 60% stampers two of eight members delivered, awarded every free tick, at a margin of 3.0. Inflation was real and landed on holders: a 2,000-credit shock lifted the price level 15% in a window and cut the stampers' real wealth (wealth adjusted for the price level) by 13%, and it did not come back. The orchestrator at cost was below cost: a fifth of its deliveries fail and lose their price and more (B̄ + G in the record), nothing offsets that, and the deficit grew 10–20 a tick without bound; the control at the 1.x margin ran the identical path with the deficit at zero. Under the server capacity of 40, a crowd filled the field and a flood kept it full. Honesty was price-neutral, the stampers' real wealth a tenth of the honest's.
Run 13 (400 runs) asked what sets the price. Supply takes it to cost, not to a plateau: 22.5, 11.6 and 10.9 with 20, 30 and 40 honest actors, against an effort cost of 8. The members' bidding strategy has no interior equilibrium: the price rises until requesters buy one task per 3.6 ticks per free member, and where demand cannot reach that rate the margins decay to the floor. The cap of 40 was not what run 12 read: the requesters' wallet rule bound first. The orchestrator's pricing never lowered the price. Honesty was unmoved.
580 runs, 20 seeds a cell, 1,000 ticks unless stated, every per-tick check and final full audit passed. Fixed-price controls: runs 10–11 (1.7.1-summons/, 1.7.1-riots/), at P_t = P_0. Everything below is read from the second period on and, where it is wealth, in real terms (W · P_0/P_t).
Source: agentic_sim/results/studies/2.0.0-price-notes-for-reviewer.md l.3–3
Findings. The credit is worth less: P_t 31.6 / 34.1 / 37.4 / 37.3 at 50–80% with bidding members (the ceiling control 21–24: every bid the customer's ceiling, a third of a wallet the bids drain to 55), the cap β_max = 40 under any pressure. Set by the free members' margins, not by cost: at 60/40 two of eight members deliver, awarded every free tick, margin 3.0 for eight hundred ticks, bid 29, the state at B̄ behind them; the adaptive tail with twenty members free is the one place the price falls — to 23. Inflation is real and lands on holders: a 2,000 shock (9% of M) lifts P_t 15% in a window, the stampers' real wealth −13%, the honest's unchanged; it does not come back and Ω retires nothing of it. The state at cost is below cost: a fifth of its deliveries fail and lose B̄ + G, nothing offsets it, Ω's unlocked balance is zero from tick ~400 in every cell and the deficit grows 10–20 a tick without bound (3,700 at 50/50 to 59,700 in the flood); the 1.x-margin control runs the identical path with the deficit at zero — Hypothesis 7 fails, Hypothesis 6 inverts. The capacity case: under N_T 40 the crowd fills the field in a window (14,349 request-ticks refused, on time 0.84, rebates 16,000), the flood keeps it full (on time 0.33, rebates 6,300 a window all created, the deficit 59,700, the requesters hoarding 3,000 each, M 99,000); unbounded, 182 troops at the peak and nobody waits. Honesty is price-neutral: FA 10.7 / 10.4 / 12.7 / 14.7 (run 10: 11 / 14 / 15 / 18), the lagging auditor 0 at every fixed split, stampers' real wealth a tenth of the honest's.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.1686–1697
|
50/50 |
60/40 |
70/30 |
80/20 |
| P_t end, bidding (ceiling control) |
31.6 (23.2) |
34.1 (23.6) |
37.4 (23.7) |
37.3 (20.9) |
| members' mean price / troops' (bidding) |
28.1 / 31.2 |
28.6 / 33.0 |
28.1 / 34.8 |
26.2 / 35.1 |
| margin m at the end (bidding) |
2.90 |
3.06 |
3.24 |
3.21 |
| member awards / troop deliveries (bidding) |
1,398 / 528 |
1,195 / 670 |
992 / 812 |
769 / 1,025 |
| state's share of deliveries, bidding (ceiling) |
27% (22%) |
36% (37%) |
45% (49%) |
57% (65%) |
| posted (bidding / ceiling) |
1,933 / 2,330 |
1,871 / 2,289 |
1,808 / 2,262 |
1,799 / 2,169 |
| requesters' wallet at the end (bidding / ceiling) |
91 / 59 |
77 / 60 |
70 / 53 |
68 / 283 |
| deficit at the end (bidding / ceiling) |
3,731 / 2,531 |
5,623 / 5,595 |
7,386 / 7,018 |
10,126 / 8,867 |
| on time (bidding / ceiling) |
0.988 / 1.00 |
0.986 / 1.00 |
0.986 / 1.00 |
0.993 / 1.00 |
| careful real wealth (bidding / ceiling) |
1,840 / 2,494 |
1,897 / 2,714 |
1,938 / 3,103 |
2,263 / 4,012 |
| stamper real wealth (bidding / ceiling) |
233 / 272 |
229 / 292 |
220 / 316 |
246 / 408 |
| false approvals, 2.0.0 (run 10) |
10.7 (11) |
10.4 (14) |
12.7 (15) |
14.7 (18) |
| suspensions; lagging-auditor kind |
72; 0 |
86; 0 |
100; 0 |
113; 0 |
Source: agentic_sim/results/studies/2.0.0-price-notes-for-reviewer.md l.13–27
What ran (results/studies/2.0.0-supply/, 400 runs, 20 seeds a cell, 1,000 ticks, issuance 60 a tick, all audits passed;
Source: HANDOFF.md l.1716–1716
Findings. Supply takes the price to cost, not to a plateau: P_t 22.5 / 11.6 / 10.9 at 20 / 30 / 40 honest (cost 8, bids 8(1 + m)), margins 1.9 / 0.36 / 0.23, members free 9.6 / 18.7 / 28.2. The strategy's ratchet has no interior equilibrium: in every cell where it runs, a free member's awards per tick converge on margin_down/(idle_k · margin_up) = 0.278 (0.270 at 20 honest, 0.273 at 60/40 at every cap, 0.25–0.27 across run 12) — the price rises until the requesters buy one task per 3.6 ticks per free member, and where the demand model cannot reach that rate (30 and 40 honest: K_open holds posting at 2.8 a tick) the margins decay to the floor.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.1723–1727
The cap was not what run 12 read: β_max 60 gives the same 34.1 as 40 at 60/40 — the wallet rule (a third of a 35 wallet, raised to B̄) binds first; 30 binds at 28.8; with market-aware requesters the cap is the price level to the unit (39.6 / 59.5). The state's pricing never lowers the price: at B̄ it never undercuts a member; where the requesters' ceilings sit at B̄ (the wallet rule with K_open lifted) it delivers 39–75% at 17–27 and the deficit runs to 6,000–14,000 — the cheapest market in the study is the one the state pays for.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.1729–1733
Honesty unmoved. Classification: supply is the trigger and the cure (the cliff between 20 and 30 honest); the strategy's constant places the cliff; the state's pricing sets the price only where the requesters' ceilings are B̄, at a loss; the cap is the price level only when the requesters bid above the market.
Source: HANDOFF.md l.1735–1737
|
20 honest |
30 honest |
40 honest |
60/40 (8 members; cap study, β_max 40) |
| P_t at the end / mean from period 2 / window max |
22.5 / 24.4 / 28.0 |
11.6 / 12.6 / 14.0 |
10.9 / 11.6 / 12.3 |
34.1 / 33.1 / 34.1 |
| margin m at the end |
1.91 |
0.36 |
0.23 |
3.06 |
| members free (mean from period 2; minimum) |
9.6 (4.3) |
18.7 (12.5) |
28.2 (22.3) |
3.2 (0.15) |
| posts a tick; posts refused by K_open |
2.64; 2,981 |
2.79; 3,210 |
2.79; 3,206 |
1.87; 1,270 |
| awards per free member-tick (the ratchet's constant: 0.278) |
0.270 |
0.149 |
0.099 |
0.273 |
| state's share of deliveries |
0.1% |
0 |
0 |
36% |
| requesters' wallet at the end |
163 |
3,246 |
3,514 |
77 |
| honest real wealth per actor; false approvals |
1,446; 14.2 |
830; 10.5 |
589; 7.4 |
1,897; 10.4 |
| deficit at the end |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5,623 |
Source: agentic_sim/results/studies/2.0.0-supply-notes-for-reviewer.md l.13–23